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Início / Notícias / Soja

07/12/2010 - 14h09 - Atualizado em 07/12/2010 - 13h55

Exportação de soja deve bater recorde em 2011

O USDA prevê os embarques do Brasil, o segundo maior exportador mundial de soja em grão, em 31,4 milhões de toneladas, um aumento de quase 10%

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Exportação de soja deve bater recorde em 2011

A escalada dos preços internacionais da soja e seus derivados (farelo e óleo) deverá propiciar um novo recorde histórico da receita das exportações brasileiras desses produtos no ano que vem.

Segundo a Associação Brasileira das Indústrias de Óleos Vegetais (Abiove), os embarques deverão render, no total, US$ 19,643 bilhões em 2011, 15,2% mais que o previsto para este ano, 9,2% acima do recorde 2008 e quase quatro vezes mais que em 2001. Mas cresce a expectativa de que a marca de US$ 20 bilhões poderá ser superada pela primeira vez.

Em 2008, a "explosão" das commodities que antecedeu o aprofundamento da crise financeira global impulsionou as exportações do chamado complexo soja a US$ 17,986 bilhões, valor quase 60% superior ao de 2007.

E a marca foi atingida com um câmbio mais favorável do que o atual. O dólar médio (Ptax) fechou 2008 em R$ 1,83747. Em 2010, até ontem, ficou em R$ 1,76475, segundo cálculos do Valor Data.

Os picos de preços alcançados em junho de 2008 ainda não foram revisitados, mas desde então as cotações internacionais não mais recuaram às médias históricas observadas até 2007. Atualmente, estão cerca de duas vezes mais elevadas.

Em 2010, quando a demanda externa puxada pela China seguiu firme e problemas climáticos prejudicaram as colheitas no Hemisfério Norte, um novo surto ascendente ganhou fôlego em julho - também contaminado, como o de 2008, por uma boa dose de especulação.

Cálculos do Valor Data mostram que, mesmo com a queda de 0,9% de ontem, os contratos futuros de segunda posição de entrega da soja em grão (que domina as exportações do complexo, como mostra o infográfico acima), mantêm altas de 23,53% em 2010 e de 23,3% em 12 meses na bolsa de Chicago.

Como o fenômeno La Niña ainda ameaça as lavouras que estão sendo plantadas no Hemisfério Sul, sobretudo na Argentina e no Sul do Brasil, as cotações seguem sustentadas e poderão subir ainda mais. Para analistas, as exportações poderão bater um novo recorde mesmo em caso de diminuição da safra - mas, nesse caso, é difícil prever até que ponto.

Em sua última pesquisa de campo, a Conab estimou a área plantada de soja no país entre 23,737 milhões a 24,2 milhões de hectares nesta safra 2010/11, acima dos 23,468 milhões de 2009/10. Já a produção, por conta de efeitos climáticos, deverá ficar entre 67,687 milhões e 69,004 milhões de toneladas, ante 68,688 milhões no ciclo passado, quando o clima foi praticamente ideal e a produtividade foi bastante elevada.

Em Mato Grosso, maior Estado produtor do país, o La Niña atrasou o plantio e, com isso, a disponibilidade de soja será menor em janeiro. Mas não há quebra prevista. No Paraná e no Rio Grande do Sul, outros grandes celeiros, ainda não houve problemas, mas a ameaça persistirá até o fim de março do próximo ano.

"Para surpresa dos produtores, por enquanto está tudo bem. Mas o risco existe", diz Antonio Sartori, da corretora Brasoja, de Porto Alegre.

Com a preocupação na região, que alimenta no agricultor a esperança de novos aumentos de preços, ainda há cerca de 1 milhão de toneladas de soja colhidas em 2010 que não foram comercializadas no Rio Grande do Sul. Ao mesmo tempo, as vendas antecipadas da nova safra do Estado, que será colhida em 2011, não passam de 20% do previsto.

Em Mato Grosso, onde o plantio está quase concluído, mais da metade da futura colheita já foi vendida por conta da recente valorização.

"As exportações prometem. Poderemos passar dos US$ 20 bilhões", acredita Renato Sayeg, da Tetras Corretora, de São Paulo. Para ele, dependendo do que acontecer no Hemisfério Sul é possível que o bushel (27,2 quilos) do grão volte a superar US$ 16 na bolsa de Chicago, como aconteceu em 2008.

Sayeg lembra que o mercado está particularmente sensível às projeções de oferta global no ciclo 2010/11, em larga medida porque se consolida a expectativa de que a China, que lidera as importações globais de soja em grão, poderá comprar mais do que o previsto.

Pesquisa de novembro do Departamento da Agricultura dos EUA (USDA) indicam que as importações chinesas chegarão a 57 milhões de toneladas em 2010/11, 13,2% mais que em 2009/10. O USDA prevê os embarques do Brasil, o segundo maior exportador mundial de soja em grão, em 31,4 milhões de toneladas, um aumento de quase 10%.

Para a Abiove, serão 31,6 milhões de toneladas de soja em grão, além de 13,5 milhões de toneladas de farelo e 1,4 milhão de óleo. O volume de exportação dos derivados derrapa desde a Lei Kandir, de 1996, que estabeleceu a cobrança de ICMS no transporte interestadual do grão e desestimulou o processamento da oleaginosa para o mercado externo.

Mas as reclamações das indústrias perderam o gás nos últimos anos, quando a demanda doméstica por farelo cresceu com o avanço da produção de carnes e o consumo de óleo aumentou em razão do avanço do programa nacional do biodiesel.

Fonte: Valor Econômico

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Warning: strftime() [function.strftime]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/Sao_Paulo' for 'BRT/-3.0/no DST' instead in /home/funpap/public_html/estrutura/noticias/exibe.php on line 3497
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Projeto com suínos traz ganho ambiental

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Warning: strftime() [function.strftime]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/Sao_Paulo' for 'BRT/-3.0/no DST' instead in /home/funpap/public_html/estrutura/noticias/exibe.php on line 3497
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Chuvas provocam aumento dos preços no Piauí

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Warning: strftime() [function.strftime]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/Sao_Paulo' for 'BRT/-3.0/no DST' instead in /home/funpap/public_html/estrutura/noticias/exibe.php on line 3497
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Pesquisas buscam melhorar eficiência da tecnologia de clonagem de bovinos

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Warning: strftime() [function.strftime]: It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/Sao_Paulo' for 'BRT/-3.0/no DST' instead in /home/funpap/public_html/estrutura/noticias/exibe.php on line 3497
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Morango terá primeira safra certificada pela produção integrada

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